Progress my friends, we are making progress. I hate to admit it, but last week was my best weekly record thus far in 2019 with a nice even record of 3-3, but hey, the lock hit for the second week in a row.
I don’t want to dwell on the past, but all of my losses last week were complete heartbreakers that consisted of some late leads being blown and some field goal kickers missing every single field goal they attempted (and then getting cut the next day). I was really hoping for a huge week last week to get that season record back on track, but hey, that is what this week is for, as once again, I love these picks.
New York Giants vs. New England Over 41
I was really close to taking the New England Patriots here -17 here, but part of me thinks they’re due for a close game. Now, by no means do I think this one would be close because the New York Giants compare to them on paper, but because every team has their down weeks and in the NFL, it's near impossible to go 17 weeks without one.
With that being said, I can see the total going over in one of two ways. The first way is if this one does happen to find itself being a close one, this total would be shattered thanks to a shootout as I don’t see the New York defense holding the Pats to a low score and making this a defensive battle. The other angle I could see the over hitting is if the Patriots completely blow Daniel Jones off the field and they hit the over by scoring 42 points on their own. Either way you want to spin in, I like this low total going over 41 in this one.
Editor's Note - Adam did have this pick in before Thursday Night Football's game started so he gets full credit for this.
***The total going over is 11-6 in the last 17 Thursday Night Football games
Seattle Seahawks -2 vs. Cleveland Browns
What an absolute collapse by the Cleveland Browns over the last few weeks. A favorite to win the Super Bowl now looks like a team that is just fighting to NOT get a top-pick in this upcoming draft.
The Seattle Seahawks, on the other hand, have been proving week in and week out that they're a force to be reckoned with. Many people, myself included, didn’t think much of an already watered-down Seattle offense that saw it’s best offensive threat, Doug Baldwin, retire unexpectedly due to injury. However, Russell Wilson has been doing what many expected Baker Mayfield to do this year by playing like an MVP. Wilson has been unreal while turning these young, under the radar players in Tyler Lockett, DK Metcalf, Cris Carson, and Will Dissly into legitimate stars.
Although Seattle doesn’t get their beloved home-field advantage in this one, I’m taking the QB that has 12 touchdown passes and 0 interceptions over the one that has twice as many picks as he has TDs (4 TDs to 8 INTs). The Seahawks -2 seems like an easy one.
***The Seahawks are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games on the road
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Baltimore Ravens -11
I have loved betting against the Cincinnati Bengals so far this year and this week is no different. I don’t love the Baltimore Ravens here by double digits, but there is a huge part of me that sees the Ravens blowing out their division rival. The Ravens have struggled to really hit their stride so far this season, despite starting their season off with a bang by score 59 points in their opener against the Miami Dolphins.
However, despite an overall ugly second half from them last week against the Pittsburgh Steelers, I think the momentum that carried them to an overtime win will spill over into this week's matchup. I can see them taking out their early-season frustrations out on the lowly Bengals who have failed to score at least 20 points in three out of their four games this season. I’m taking the Ravens -11 with hopes that the line drops half a point or so.
***All betting trends favor the Bengals in this matchup, I just can’t get myself to put any money on them at this moment in time
New Orleans Saints +1.5 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
This is a line I just had to stop and stare at because I could not believe my eyes. How are the New Orleans Saints an underdog in this one? I get that they’re on the road and I understand that the Jacksonville Jaguars are playing decent with a backup quarterback under center, but let’s get real here for a second and pump the breaks on the “Minshew Magic”.
The New Orleans Saints were a true Super Bowl contender before the season kicked off and if you ask me, that hasn’t changed. If people are still nervous about Teddy Bridgewater they need to take a moment and check the facts. Let’s take last week for example where Teddy threw for 314 yards on 26 of 34 passing and four touchdowns. Now, I get it, that came against a very weak Tampa Bay Buccaneers secondary.
However, the Jags secondary doesn’t really scare me either and if he can continue to find his buddy Michael Thomas throughout this game, I think they can really break it open. I am absolutely hammering the Saints +1.5 for my lock of the week while also taking them ML.
***The Saints are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games on the road. The Saints are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games against the Jaguars.
Tennessee Titans vs. Denver Broncos -2
That’s it, I am officially, officially out on the Tennessee Titans. If you have been following along this year, you know how much I LOVED the Titans and how I thought they never got the credit they deserved. Well, once again it shows how much I know because week in and week out they continued to break my heart.
All they had to do last week was cover a simple -2.5 point spread at home against a beatable Buffalo Bills and they missed FOUR field goals and lost by 7 points! FOUR FIELD GOALS!
With that being said, I think it’s going to take a lot for them to bounce back from that loss and having to head into Denver to take on the Broncos is not the place you want to try and get back on the horse (no pun intended). The Broncos actually impressed last week as well with their win over the Los Angeles Chargers. Despite not having Bradley Chubb, I still think the Broncos defense can show up and win games from time to time. I’m rolling with the Broncos in this one -2.
***The Titans are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games.
Detroit Lions vs Green Bay Packers -4
The Green Bay Packers absolutely dismantled the Dallas Cowboys last week in Jerry’s World (AT&T Stadium), truly showing the rest of the league that they are pushing to be the team to beat in the NFC.
Although I think the Detroit Lions are having a nice year and I think they will continue to have a nice year, I just don’t think they will have what it takes to keep up with the Packers at Lambeau Field.
At first, I couldn’t believe that this spread was only set at -4. Then I took a look at the injury report for this week and I’m now worried that either team might not have enough guys to be able to play an actual game. Although none of them appear too serious, the Lions have Danny Amendola, Mike Daniels, Darius Slay, Quandre Diggs, Da’Shawn Hand and TJ Hockenson listed as questionable while the Packers have Davante Adams, Corey Linsley, Jamaal Williams, Robert Tonyan, Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Darnell Savage all with question marks next to their name as well.
While the Packers are missing more talent on offense than what the Lions are losing on defense, I still like Aaron Rodgers and a home-boosted defense at home in a rivalry game. Lock me in for the Packers -4.
***The Packers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games.
Season Record: 8-16
All lines, totals and trends are courtesy of OddsShark.com