The Ultimate Pick 6 - All Eyes (And Bets) On the AFC North Showdowns
Write a gambling blog they said. It will be fun they said…If you have been following along so far this season, you already know its been a tough one as we went 1-5 in Week 1, while only showing a marginal improvement in Week 2 going 2-4.
HOWEVAAA, this poor record is actually great news for everybody as this means I’m DUE for a huge week. As a gambler, I love odds and when I see black hit back to back, I’m putting everything on red and if I’m being totally honest, I love my picks this week. Fingers crossed that we can sweep this board and I can slowly crawl back to respectability.
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Green Bay Packers Under 46
As a fan, I hate when my team has the Thursday night game. I always associate the shortened-week contest with sloppy, low-scoring games. The Philadelphia Eagles come into this game already limited due to all of the injuries to their wide receiver core, while the Green Bay Packers still have to prove that they know what they are doing on offense. Both teams have very different records, but both come into the game with similar talent on paper.
I anticipate this battle to be a low scoring affair, not only because each team is coming into the game off a short week, but because both offenses are still looking to find their identity. With that being said, I am taking the under 46 total points in this early week affair.
**So far during the 2019 season, the under has gone 3-0 on Thursday Night Football
Carolina Panthers vs. Houston Texans -4
The Carolina Panthers’ backup quarterback Kyle Allen really rained on my parade last week as I loved the Arizona Cardinals as a home underdog. Allen showed that he is more than capable of leading an NFL offensive to a nice road win.
However, that win came against a bottom feeder Cardinals team, whereas now he’s tasked with taking on a potential playoff team in the Houston Texans. Deshaun Watson continues to prove that he is one of the best young quarterbacks in the NFL and their defense has still remained steady thanks to their dominant team captain in JJ Watt.
I like for the Texans’ to stay in rhythm throughout this entire game on both sides of the ball. I think Kyle Allen comes back down to Earth in this game. I’m taking the home team Texans -4.
**The Panthers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games.
That's our quarterback.— Houston Texans (@HoustonTexans) September 25, 2019
Cleveland Browns Vs Ravens -7
This game has a very interesting spread as bettors have already hammered the Baltimore Ravens up from a -5 point favorite, to a -7 point favorite. Still, I think the Baltimore Ravens are the second-best team in the AFC behind their Week 3 opponent, the Kansas City Chiefs.
The Cleveland Browns have shown no signs of a rhythm on offense so far in 2019 and I really think this could be the game that puts their season into a total tailspin.
I think the Ravens will come hot out of the gates by scoring early and putting a lot of pressure on the Browns’ offense. Cleveland Head Coach Freddie Kitchens has not done enough with his play-calling to make me think that the struggling Baker Mayfield can keep up with the his 2018 NFL Draft classmate, Lamar Jackson. Although the line is high, I like Baltimore -7, but would absolutely love them at -6 or -5. (Keep an eye on the line and see if it drops)
**There are literally zero betting trends that would push you towards the Ravens here, but come on, it’s Lamar Jackson. Just take the Ravens
Tennessee Titans +4 vs. Atlanta Falcons
The Tennessee Titans have broke my heart each and every week this season, but I still refuse to quit on them. I’ve continued to take them week in and week out because I truly believe that this is a much better team than people have given them credit for.
The other half of this game features a team similar to the underachieving Titans, the Atlanta Falcons. Both teams have showed moments of being an explosive offense, but for every moment of greatness, they’ve shown two moments of misery.
Although I think the Falcons have the offensive firepower to win this one, I think the Titans’ defense shows up and carries this team to a nice bounce-back victory on the road. I do think the Titans win this one straight up, but I’m happy to take the points on this game considering Tennessee’s 2019 unpredictability. Titans +4 while also playing them on the money line.
**The Titans are 4-1 SU and ATS in its last 5 games against NFL opponents. The Titans are 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games following consecutive ATS losses.
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Denver Broncos -3
Considering they are an 0-3 team, I see a lot of life left in the Denver Broncos. Under a new, defensive-minded head coach in Vic Fangio, I think the Broncos carry a gritty “we have nothing to lose” attitude. Going into this season, everyone knew that this would be a rebuilding year for Denver so any positives or wins can be considered great progress.
The Jacksonville Jaguars on the other hand had higher hopes coming into the 2019 season until things took a turn for the worse when franchise quarterback, Nick Foles went down in Week 1. Although the man, the myth, the legend Gardner Minshew has played well beyond expectations, I think Denver finally finds their defensive footing at home in this one. I like for the Broncos to finally rack up a few sacks and show the young Minshew that it’s tough to win in Denver. I feel good in taking the Broncos -3.
**The Broncos are 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games against AFC South opponents.
“The mindset is right, and we’re still working at it. We’re disappointed obviously being 0-3, but hopefully we can come home against the Jaguars ... and get a victory.” - Pres. of Football Ops/GM John Elway pic.twitter.com/7k6DBwixAf— Denver Broncos (@Broncos) September 25, 2019
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Under 43.5 (LOCK)
This is a game that as a fan, I have no interest in watching, but as a bettor, I think it’s an intriguing one.
You have two division rivals that have a history of hard-nosed, physical matchups that have a track record of going down as some of the biggest moments in each team’s recent history. However, those days have come and gone for both franchises as 2019 versions of the Cincinnati Bengals and the Pittsburgh Steelers are just looking to stay afloat after their identical 0-3 starts.
With that being said, I think this could be a quick, low-scoring game, but not by choice to either team. The Bengals offense has failed to really do anything since the loss of their big playmaker AJ Green, while the Steelers have had no production from the quarterback position from the combination of a beat up Ben Roethlisberger and an inexperienced Mason Rudolph.
Look for both teams to pound the run game and churn the clock in this one. I like the under 43.5 as my LOCK OF THE WEEK.
**The total has gone under in 5 of the Bengals’ last 7 games vs. the Steelers
'We just have to get this ‘W.’ That’s all it comes down to. I don’t care how it gets done, it has to get done. It’s my job to keep us accountable. It’s my job to keep guys ready.' - @CamHeyward— Teresa Varley (@Teresa_Varley) September 24, 2019
More: https://t.co/Xv7lOOjNmL pic.twitter.com/J0zdayCNef
All lines, totals and trends are courtesy of OddShark.com
Season Record: 3-9