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September 19, 2019

Wow, what a brutal Week 2. Going 1-5 in one weekend is something that is almost hard to do. If our six picks last week only consisted of 3 quarters of football we would have swept the board at 6-0. Right? Yeah. Definitely. Last week was fine. I’m fine.

Hopefully, you faded all my picks because you then would have had a heck of a weekend. Congrats! However, this week I am feeling a great bounce-back weekend. As the dust settles on the questions and concerns of the new season, we are starting to figure out who these teams really are. I'm feeling good moving into Week 3 as we have a lot of intriguing games that are in this week’s Ultimate Pick Six for unique reasons.

Baltimore Ravens +7 vs. Kansas City Chiefs

I was one of the many Lamar Jackson non-believers dating all the way back to his college days. Much like my record last week, I am now quite embarrassed to admit that. Jackson has looked like an early MVP candidate as one of biggest offensive threats in the 2019 season as he has been able to do just about anything not only his arm but his legs as well.

The Baltimore Ravens take on the Kansas City Chiefs and another quarterback who isn’t too shabby himself in Patrick Mahomes. This game is going to be an absolute must-watch. I have a strong feeling that this game is going to be an absolute shootout and if you look at the over/under total of 55 points, Vegas thinks it will be as well. Although I think the Chiefs come away with this one at home, I think the explosive Ravens offense keep this one close throughout. I’m taking Baltimore with the +7 while also leaning on the Over 55 total.

 

 

 

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Tennessee Titans -1.5 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

The Tennessee Titans were one of my many flops from last week, but they were one defensive stop away from moving to 2-0. If they would have closed out that game against the Indianapolis Colts, I think they would be an easy three-point favorite this week despite being on the road.

The Jacksonville Jaguars are doing everything they can to stay afloat amidst the early Nick Foles injury. Trust me when I tell you it took everything in me to pick against the already legendary, Gardner Minshew, I just think Tennessee is a better team at this point in the season. I like the Titans to bounce back here on the road while covering the -1.5.

** The Titans are 5-1 against the spread in their last six games against the Jaguars.

 

 

 

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Denver Broncos vs. Green Bay Packers Under 42.5

Going into this season, I knew the Green Bay Packers defense was going to be much improved, but I had no clue that they would be this dominant. They put on an absolute clinic early on last week against a potential playoff team in the Minnesota Vikings.

I like for Green Bay to be able to shut down the quietly efficient Denver Broncos offense while getting an added boost from their home Lambeau faithful. On the other sideline, I also like the Broncos’ defense just as much. If Denver can get an early pass rush going with their dominant edge rushers Von Miller and Bradley Chubb, I think they can really disrupt a Packers offense that is still looking for their true identity. I think this will be a low scoring, defensive battle with the Packers edging out the Broncos by a few points. I really like the Under 42.5 total points in this one.

 **The total has gone under in 10 of Denver’s last 10 games. The total has gone under in 4 out of Green Bay’s last 5 games. This is my lock of the week!

 

 

 

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Arizona Cardinals +3 vs. Carolina Panthers

I’ll be totally honest when I say I had no hopes for the Arizona Cardinals coming into the 2019 season. After two games, I actually think they look pretty promising.

I really did not know what to expect from their rookie quarterback in Kyler Murray and their very unproven coach in Kliff Kingsbury, but they have looked pretty fluid on offense, not showing any issues with moving the ball.

The Carolina Panthers, on the other hand, have taken the opposite turn in my eyes. They were a team that was finally healthy and had a number of players poised to be breakout candidates. But they've looked like they've been sleepwalking on both sides of the ball thus far. I think the underdog Cardinals are set for a breakout performance against the limping Panthers. I’m hammering the Cardinals +3 while strongly considering taking them straight up.

** The Panthers are 0-5 ATS in their last five games as the favorite.

 

 

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Miami Dolphins vs. Dallas Cowboys Under 47

Much like last week, not doing a lot of data crunching and handicapping went into this pick. To put it simply, I think the Dallas Cowboys win this game somewhere along the lines of 36-0. I legitimately think it’s possible that the Miami Dolphins do not score a single point for the rest of the season.

The Dolphins season has already been over for a few weeks now and we have been seeing the proof in that as they are trading off their talented assets one by one. I had a lot of hope for Josh Rosen going into this season as I thought he got a pretty raw deal in Arizona, but after watching him in his limited reps the last two weeks it’s pretty safe to say there isn’t much to his future in Miami either. I think the Cowboys jump out to a huge lead early and call the dogs off in the second half as they have a tough stretch coming up against the Green Bay Packers, Philadelphia Eagles and New Orleans Saints. I’m settling on the Under 47 total for this abysmal matchup.

**The total has gone under in 13 of Dallas’ last 17 games against opponents in the AFC conference. 

 

 

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Seattle Seahawks -4.5 vs. New Orleans Saints

If Drew Brees was healthy for the New Orleans Saints, there is no way the Seattle Seahawks would be a -4.5 favorite, let alone a favorite period.

Across the board, I think you can strongly argue that the Saints are better and deeper at almost all positions except quarterback going into this one. However, I think quarterback play is what decides this matchup. I just didn’t see enough out of Teddy Bridgewater last week to give me confidence that he can still run an effective version of the typical dynamic Saints offense. Going into a hostile environment like Seattle isn’t a recipe for success for a backup quarterback who is looking to gain back his “starter” legs for the first time in a few years.

Although Seattle has played some tight ones this year against struggling teams in the Cincinnati Bengals and the Pittsburgh Steelers, I think they use the "12th Man" and cover this one. It will be an interesting game, but I am leaning towards the Seahawks -4.5.

 

 

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Season Record -- 1-5

** All stats and trends are courtesy of oddshark.com **


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