The Ultimate Pick Six - Believe the Undefeated San Francisco 49ers and the Underdog Detroit Lions
Do I dare say we’re back ladies and gentlemen? Hell no I would never say that, but at least last week was a positive one for us that saw us go 4-2 overall and going 1-0 on our “Lock of the Week." We're 3-1 for the year on locks so at least I have been doing something right this year.
We’re right in the heart of the season now heading into Week 7, allowing us to truly get a grip on who are contenders and pretenders are for the 2019 season. Oh, and if you do claim to know who the true contenders and pretenders are so far this season you’re a liar and nobody should trust you with anything.
Some of my early favorites in the Cowboys, Eagles, Chiefs, Rams, Browns, Chargers and Bears have taken some serious hits over the last few weeks while some of my early pretenders in the Packers, Seahawks, 49ers and Bills have risen to the tops of the standings with no signs of slowing down.
What does this mean? It means that we still really no absolutely nothing, which makes gambling hard, but that’s what makes it fun right?! Sure…Here are your bona fide winners for Week 7:
San Francisco 49ers -10 vs. Washington Redskins
Much like my lock last week, my jaw dropped upon seeing this line. I mean, I get that the San Francisco 49ers are on the road, but the Washington Redskins are an absolute dumpster fire. The Miami Dolphins are arguably the worst team to take the field this decade and the Redskins only beat them by 1 and potentially could have lost if the Dolphins completed what would have been the game-winning two-point conversion.
The 49ers, on the other hand, have won their last two games by a combined 41 points against two talented (yet underachieving) football teams in the Los Angeles Rams and the Cleveland Browns. I was never a huge believer in the 2019 49ers with unproven Jimmy Garoppolo under center, but their defense led by future Hall of Famer Richard Sherman has proven to be incredibly legitimate and all of a sudden I find myself on board.
After seeing how poorly Case Keenum and good opposing defenses mix, this could be an ugly one for the Redskins. I honestly do not care what this line ends up being. It could go all the way up to 49ers -20 and I would still be comfortable hammering it. Lock this line in with me now at 49ers -10 before it skyrockets.
***The Redskins are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games. The 49ers at 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games
Minnesota Vikings vs. Detroit Lions +1.5
I’m not going to go as far as to say the Detroit Lions should have straight up won last week’s game against the Green Bay Packers, but they sure as hell put themselves in a position to. After one quarter of football it looked as if we were going to have a blowout on our hands, but Aaron Rodgers did what Aaron Rodgers does and turned water into wine by making Allen Lazard (yes I had to Google his first name, but you didn’t know it either) look like the next big thing.
Fortunately for Detroit, they’re back at home this week against a much more manageable quarterback in the Minnesota Vikings’ Kirk Cousins. The Vikings come in with a better overall record than the Lions at 4-2 vs. Detroit’s 2-2-1, but the eye test tells me that the Lions are simply playing better football at the moment.
On paper, I will not argue with you the Vikings have more talent and there is no such thing as moral victories in the NFL, but if they were, the Lions would lead the league in them. In close losses to both the Chiefs and the Packers on the road, there were moments where it looked like the Lions could beat anybody. Let’s also not forget they were up 18 against the Arizona Cardinals in Week 1 before they let that one slip away. If the Lions can play a complete four quarters in this game, I think they can beat one of the league’s biggest pretenders in the Vikings. I really like the Lions +1.5 here and I think you can get an even better line on them later in the week as the public has been all over Minnesota.
***The Lions are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 games
Oakland Raiders +6 vs. Green Bay Packers
Will I go as far as to say the Oakland Raiders are a legitimate team? Absolutely not. Will I go as far as to say they are an ever so slightly above average team that can hang with anyone in the league? Absolutely.
On paper, I think the Green Bay Packers have the Oakland Raiders beat at just about every position, except for running back which normally would make me lean towards GB. However, this isn’t a head to head matchup play for me here, as much as it a situational play.
The Raiders are coming off a bye week in which they had a huge win against the Chicago Bears in London the week before where on the other hand, you have a banged up, tired Packers squad coming in off a Monday Night Football shortened week.
Again, do I think the Raiders are a legitimate contender? No. Do I think the Packers have a shot at the Lombardi this year? Yes (Although I wouldn’t bet on that). This simply comes down to that Raiders are hyped up, fresh as a daisy squad, led by a head coach that is one of this generation's best motivators in Jon Gruden.
The fact that Aaron Rodgers’ top target last week was Allen Lazard (Davante Adams and Geronimo Allison may be back), I’m gladly taking the points here, especially when its as many as 6. Give me the Raiders +6 all day.
***There are really no great betting trends here that favor the Raiders, but they are 3-2 ATS this year so they are a team that is capable of covering the spread in 2019
Big mood. 😤 pic.twitter.com/MuNJ4GB9vi— Oakland Raiders (@Raiders) October 17, 2019
New Orleans Saints vs. Chicago Bears -3 AND Over 38
The New Orleans Saints have been a team I have hammered all year as nobody has given proper respect to Teddy Bridgewater and that more than formidable defense. However, this is the week where I just have to fade them.
Much like the Raiders pick that was just discussed, this is almost more of a situational pick for me. Now, I did just say Bridgewater is more than capable quarterback, but when you give the Chicago Bears and defensive coordinator Chuck Pagano two weeks to game plan against you, you might be in a lot of trouble. Oh, and you’re playing at Soldier Field which has proven to be one of the best home-field advantages the league has seen in the last two seasons.
I also have faith that the Bears offense will have a nice, new, well-rehearsed script of plays that throws the Saints off early allowing them to jump out to an early lead. Between the Bears defense at home and two quarterbacks that are more than capable of turning the ball over, I think there is a defensive score or two. With all that being said I like the Bears at home -3 while also taking the over in an already extremely low total of 38.
***The Bears are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games. All trends favor the under here, but when I see a total that low I have to roll the dice on the over.
New England Patriots -10 vs. New York Jets
The absolute best thing that could have happened to this line was the having the New York Jets beat the Dallas Cowboys. The absolute best. Don’t get me wrong, I thought the Jets played great and Sam Darnold quickly reminded everyone watching not to forget about him when you’re having your conversations about the bright, young quarterbacks of the future.
However, the fact that this line is only -10 in favor of the New England Patriots is a nice tip of the cap to the Jets and anyone who thinks this team still has a shot at anything in 2019. In my opinion, if the Cowboys did what they were expected to do last week and beat this team by a few scores, I firmly believe that this would be a -14 to -17 line.
I love the opportunity in this one and like many Patriots games this year, not a lot of analysis and handicapping went into this one. I think the Patriots continue riding on their murder train that has steamrolled sub-par opponents all year and cover this one easy at -10.
***The Patriots are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games. The Jets are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games.
Season Record: 12-18